Add a new long synth for Dogecoin (DOGE).
\nDogecoin has risen to a top 10 spot in the crypto market, and now boasts very high volume on centralized exchanges, in the multi-billions per day on average. With an sDOGE synth, Synthetix can capture a sizeable share of that market, generating more fees for the Synthetix protocol. The synth would pair nicely with renDOGE, a 1:1 Dogecoin token on Ethereum backed 1:1 by the Ren project, enabling highly liquid cross-pool synth swaps.
\nAdding a DOGE synth could bring considerable volume to the Synthetix protocol, particularly as it pairs well with renDOGE token, enabling synthswaps. sDOGE provides a unique on-chain offering for traders looking to get exposure on DOGE because of its high volatility and memability.
\nThe Synth will be implemented in the same way as other crypto Synths.
\nThe rationale for proposing Dogecoin above other assets is partly because it has risen to the top 10 in the crypto market, with considerable volume clocking in on an average of $3 billion in USD daily on Binance alone, and partly because there exists a permissionless bridge by the Ren project from Dogecoin to Ethereum, allowing anyone anytime to wrap Dogecoin into renDOGE 1:1, and allow anyone to redeem renDOGE to native DOGE 1:1. Through cross-pool synthswap, anyone could then go from native DOGE to BTC/ETH/USD/SNX with very little slippage.
\nThe tables below showcase statistics on the cost of pushing the price of DOGE on binance (on the DOGEUSDT pair) by the percentage mentioned in the header (denoted in bp):
\n| Dump | \n25 bp | \n50 bp | \n75 bp | \n100 bp | \n150 bp | \n200 bp | \n400 bp | \n600 bp | \n800 bp | \n1000 bp | \n
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | \n$279,060 | \n$475,277 | \n$631,114 | \n$881,853 | \n$1,289,456 | \n$1,859,488 | \n$4,276,595 | \n$8,258,811 | \n$12,647,329 | \n$13,709,724 | \n
| median | \n$238,763 | \n$420,729 | \n$733,582 | \n$1,041,979 | \n$1,555,858 | \n$1,949,968 | \n$3,874,127 | \n$9,348,589 | \n$11,456,019 | \n$15,426,933 | \n
| std | \n$204,323 | \n$230,551 | \n$245,734 | \n$423,740 | \n$607,798 | \n$895,837 | \n$1,781,917 | \n$3,096,282 | \n$4,661,254 | \n$4,947,714 | \n
| Pump | \n25 bp | \n50 bp | \n75 bp | \n100 bp | \n150 bp | \n200 bp | \n400 bp | \n600 bp | \n800 bp | \n1000 bp | \n
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | \n$293,018 | \n$516,829 | \n$812,557 | \n$1,081,582 | \n$1,586,705 | \n$2,158,952 | \n$4,049,976 | \n$5,617,329 | \n$7,188,346 | \n$8,447,416 | \n
| median | \n$291,712 | \n$561,970 | \n$837,899 | \n$1,095,394 | \n$1,463,830 | \n$2,138,647 | \n$4,149,759 | \n$5,873,893 | \n$6,716,624 | \n$8,672,853 | \n
| std | \n$106,631 | \n$240,205 | \n$458,337 | \n$621,213 | \n$902,833 | \n$956,687 | \n$1,233,881 | \n$1,811,088 | \n$1,382,046 | \n$1,269,824 | \n
Bad actors in the space would need a signficant amount of capital in order to have a substantial impact on the price, therefore from a liquidity standpoint, DOGE appears to maintain reasonable amounts of liquidity on CEX. In addition, the average bid/ask spread is around 5 bp which is considered to be approporiate.
\nDoge coin is extemely volatile, the below aims to provide some metrics on the price swings since the begining of the year, in order to give the council information on bringing sDOGE to Synthetix.
\nThe graph here shows the price chart of DOGE since the beginning of the year, with the y-axis in log scale. From the graph we see that volatility had picked up significantly since Elon started his twitter campaign about the prospects of Doge.
\nWhile this chart shows the volatility on the 1-minute data where the peak was around a 15% move up.
\nThe below table displays the standard stats on returns (in bp) for different time intervals. For example, we can see that the average return is null on the 1-minute and 3-minute window but is positive at 7 bp on the 1-hour window.\nThe table reveals that minimum price decrease during a 1-minute window was 13.61% (a significant level) while the max return was 14.22%.
\nNormally this type of statistical table is used to try and understand the shape of the distribution of returns. We can note that between the 25% and 50% quantiles, returns are in a reasonable range at around 30 bps to 60 bp on the up to 5-minute interval. However, there are significant fat tail events, where prices can move by 42.9% and 36.4% in a 1-hour time frame (at the extremes).
\n| Stats | \n1m | \n3m | \n5m | \n15m | \n1hr | \n
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | \n- | \n- | \n+ 1 bp | \n+ 2 bp | \n+ 7 bp | \n
| std | \n+ 37 bp | \n+ 64 bp | \n+ 81 bp | \n+ 135 bp | \n+ 255 bp | \n
| min | \n- 1361 bp | \n- 2317 bp | \n- 2811 bp | \n- 2706 bp | \n- 4290 bp | \n
| 10% | \n- 28 bp | \n- 48 bp | \n- 61 bp | \n- 104 bp | \n- 192 bp | \n
| 25% | \n- 10 bp | \n- 18 bp | \n- 24 bp | \n- 40 bp | \n- 75 bp | \n
| 50% | \n- | \n- | \n- 1 bp | \n- 1 bp | \n- 1 bp | \n
| 75% | \n+ 10 bp | \n+ 17 bp | \n+ 23 bp | \n+ 39 bp | \n+ 72 bp | \n
| 90% | \n+ 29 bp | \n+ 49 bp | \n+ 63 bp | \n+ 105 bp | \n+ 197 bp | \n
| max | \n+ 1422 bp | \n+ 2195 bp | \n+ 1647 bp | \n+ 2210 bp | \n+ 3641 bp | \n
The below table showcases the empirical frequency of observing a certain absolute price move (in bp) within a certain time frame. For example, looking at the first row, second column, we see that there is at least a 39% chance of seeing a price move of at least 25 bp within a 3-minute window. The table reveals that seeing 5% price moves is not a frequent event (as the probability is less than 1%).
\n| moves\\timeframe | \n1m | \n3m | \n5m | \n15m | \n1hr | \n
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bp | \n23% | \n39% | \n47% | \n65% | \n80% | \n
| 50 bp | \n9% | \n19% | \n26% | \n42% | \n63% | \n
| 75 bp | \n4% | \n11% | \n16% | \n29% | \n49% | \n
| 100 bp | \n2% | \n7% | \n11% | \n21% | \n40% | \n
| 200 bp | \n0.40% | \n2% | \n3% | \n8% | \n19% | \n
| 300 bp | \n0.12% | \n1% | \n1% | \n4% | \n11% | \n
| 500 bp | \n0.02% | \n0.14% | \n0.26% | \n1% | \n5% | \n
| 1000 bp | \n0.00% | \n0% | \n0.03% | \n0.17% | \n1% | \n
It is obvious from the data see here, that DOGE is more volatile than the average altcoin. However, contingencies in place in the form of fee reclamation should help protect the debt pool from the risk of people taking advantage. In addition, prices can be set at 5% at inception and then reduced gradually if necessary.
\nThe benefit of adding DOGE is that it provides a unique proposition to traders who are on the hunt for volatility, we might be able to provide it as an experiment, to see how far we can push the boundaries of what is feasible to include in our offerings.
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\nCopyright and related rights waived via CC0.
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